Estimated U.S. PFAS Deaths & Disease
Based on the most recent epidemiological modeling from 2024 and 2025, the number of Americans dying early due to PFAS exposure, the most scientifically grounded estimate is in the low tens of thousands annually, while the number of those "tangibly affected" is likely in the millions.
Because PFAS are "force multipliers"âthey weaken the immune system, stress the kidneys, and damage the heartâthey rarely appear on a death certificate. Instead, they make people die sooner from common killers like heart disease and cancer.
Scientists do not typically count "PFAS deaths" directly; they calculate "attributable risk." Here is how the numbers break down based on current major studies:
Cancer Deaths (The "Floor")
A 2025 study from the USC Keck School of Medicine estimates that PFAS in drinking water alone causes approximately 6,800 new cancer cases (specifically kidney, testicular, and others) annually. Given cancer mortality rates, this accounts for thousands of preventable deaths each year just from one source (water) and one disease family.
Cardiovascular Deaths (The "Ceiling")
The death toll likely jumps significantly when you include heart disease. New research (including a major Italian study and US-based cohort analysis) has linked PFAS exposure to increased risk of cardiovascular mortality. Since heart disease kills nearly 700,000 Americans a year, even a tiny "PFAS attribution" (e.g., 1â2%) would mean 7,000 to 14,000 excess deaths annually.
The EPA's Own Estimate
When the EPA released its new drinking water rules in 2023, it estimated the regulations would prevent "thousands of deaths" over time. Note that this only covers deaths from future drinking water improvements, not the deaths caused by the massive, unregulated exposure of the last 40 years.
The Verdict: A conservative "guess" is that PFAS likely hasten the deaths of 10,000+ Americans per year, roughly comparable to the annual death toll of asbestos in the US (~12,000â15,000).
The number of people living with a physiological change caused by PFAS is vastly higher. "Tangibly affected" does not just mean "has cancer"; it means the chemicals have altered your body's biology in a measurable, negative way.
High Cholesterol (The Most Common Effect)
The strongest, most consistent link in PFAS science is dyslipidemia (elevated cholesterol). Millions of Americans have high cholesterol that is resistant to diet and exercise; for a significant percentage, PFAS is a contributing factor.
Reduced Vaccine Response
The CDC and other agencies have acknowledged that PFAS can suppress the immune system. This means millions of children potentially have reduced antibody responses to routine vaccinations (like tetanus and diphtheria), leaving them tangibly more vulnerable to infection.
Low Birth Weight
A 2022 study by NYU Langone Health estimated that PFAS exposure contributes to hundreds of thousands of low-birth-weight cases and childhood obesity cases, costing the economy billions.
| Metric | Estimated US Impact | Source / Logic |
|---|---|---|
| Exposure | 330 Million (97%+) | Nearly every American has detectable PFAS in their blood. |
| Tangibly Affected | Millions | People with chemically-induced high cholesterol, thyroid disease, or reduced immune response. |
| Early Deaths | ~10,000 â 20,000 / yr | Extrapolated from cancer case estimates (USC) and cardiovascular risk attributions. |
The "Iceberg" Reality: If you look at a list of "PFAS deaths," you are only seeing the tip of the iceberg (kidney cancer). The submerged part of the icebergâthe tens of thousands dying from heart attacks or strokes made more likely by PFAS-induced high cholesterolâis where the true mortality count lies.
Here are the specific, citable sources that back up the estimates for early deaths and tangible health impacts.
1. The Death Toll Estimates
Cancer Deaths
A 2025 study from the USC Keck School of Medicine found that PFAS exposure is a direct driver of liver, kidney, and testicular cancers. Specifically, the research isolated the cellular mechanisms (fat accumulation and inflammation) by which chemicals like PFOA and PFOS trigger cancer, moving the science from "correlation" to "causation."
Key Quote: "Subjects in the top 10% of PFOS exposure were 4.5 times more likely to develop liver cancer."
Cardiovascular Deaths
A 2024 study by the University of Padua (published in Environmental Health) analyzed over 30 years of death records in the Veneto region of Italy (a "red zone" for PFAS). It found a measurable excess of deaths from heart disease and ischemic heart attacks in the exposed population compared to clean zones.
Key Finding: There was an "excess of about 4,000 deaths" in the contaminated area over the study period, linked largely to cardiovascular issues driven by PFAS-induced high cholesterol.
The "Thousands" Figure
When the EPA finalized its drinking water rules in April 2024, its own regulatory impact analysis stated that the new limits would "prevent thousands of deaths" over time.
Source: EPA Press Release, April 10, 2024.
2. The "Tangibly Affected" (Millions)
Economic & Health Burden
A 2022 study by NYU Langone Health (published in Exposure and Health) estimated that PFAS exposure contributes to childhood obesity, hypothyroidism, and low birth weight, costing the US economy between $5.5 billion and $63 billion annually.
Tangible Impact: This study provides the basis for the claim that "millions" are affected, as it aggregates common conditions like obesity and thyroid disease across the entire population.
Immune Suppression
The CDC's Agency for Toxic Substances and Disease Registry (ATSDR) explicitly lists "lower antibody response to some vaccines" as a confirmed health effect of PFAS (specifically PFOA, PFOS, PFHxS, and PFDA).
Source: ATSDR Health Effects of PFAS.
3. The "Discovery" Timeline
The Internal Documents
The history of 3M and DuPont knowing about the risks in the 1960s comes from the "DuPont C8 Papers," which were released during the Bilott v. DuPont litigation.
Source: The legal archives are often cited in reports by The Intercept (who originally published the "Teflon Toxin" series) and detailed in Rob Bilott's book Exposure.